With the 2026 fantasy football draft looming, analysts are urging managers to reconsider early selections that may not reflect true upside. Tetairoa McMillan, despite his raw talent, has been flagged as a risky pick because his production has been limited by Carolina’s weak passing attack and the potential return of Jalen Coker, which could further reduce his target share.
Carolina’s Passing Constraints
Carolina’s offense has languished near the bottom of the league, ranking 27th in pass rate over expected and 22nd when trailing by four or more points. This context translates into fewer opportunities for McMillan, whose WR16 overall and WR20 points‑per‑game totals stem from just 12 of 17 weeks outside the top‑24 receivers. The combination of a subpar aerial environment and a possible re‑entry of a competing receiver makes his weekly ceiling difficult to predict.
TreVeyon Henderson’s role with the New England Patriots is similarly constrained. After a Super Bowl run in which he averaged only 8.8 touches per game, Henderson struggled with pass protection and was hampered by injury, limiting his involvement in an offense that places considerable trust in the steady but unspectacular Rhamondre Stevenson. The Patriots’ confidence in Stevenson, who provides reliable but low‑variance production, squeezes Henderson’s fantasy upside for the upcoming season.
Metcalf’s Target Landscape
DK Metcalf also confronts a crowded receiving room, facing competition from a mix of veteran and emerging players such as Adam Thielen, Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin, Roman Wilson and Jonnu Smith. He managed a modest 6.6 targets per game and posted 12.5 PPR points, placing him outside the top‑24 receivers. Adding to the challenge, Aaron Rodgers’ tendency to favor quick‑hitting slant routes in 11‑personnel packages tends to sideline Metcalf’s deep‑ball skill set, further diminishing his fantasy value.
These intertwined factors suggest that drafting McMillan, Henderson or Metcalf early could prove detrimental to a manager’s 2026 roster. Players situated in more pass‑heavy or high‑target environments are likely to deliver more consistent returns, making a strategic shift toward those options a prudent approach for drafts that aim to maximize point production.