The excitement of a new fantasy season often brings a flood of optimism, but seasoned analysts warn that not every headline‑grabbing player will translate into reliable points. This year’s most talked‑about busts revolve around three names that dominate early mock drafts: Justin Herbert, Josh Jacobs and Nico Collins. While each entered the conversation with impressive résumés, recent developments suggest a higher probability of disappointment.
Herbert’s Plateau
Herbert, the quarterback of the Los Angeles Chargers, has been unable to breach the 4,000‑yard threshold since 2022, topping out at 3,870 yards in 2024. The team’s offensive philosophy under head coach Jim Harbaugh emphasizes a balanced attack that leans heavily on the run, which curtails Herbert’s volume of throws. As a result, his draft‑day ADP may overestimate the number of scoring opportunities he will actually receive.
The limited passing workload is compounded by the Chargers’ defensive focus, which forces the coaching staff to prioritize ball control over aerial fireworks. Fantasy owners who expect a repeat of his 2023 surge may find themselves disappointed when the scoreboard reflects fewer touchdown passes and more ground‑gain reliance.
Running back Josh Jacobs presents a different set of concerns. After posting a 4.0 yards‑per‑carry average in 2023 — down from 4.4 the previous season — he also missed two games due to injury and is currently facing legal charges that could distract his preparation. The Raiders’ backfield committee, now bolstered by additional depth, further erodes Jacobs’ share of carries, making his upside more uncertain.
Wide receiver Nico Collins has seen his Average Draft Position climb to WR9 after teammate Jayden Higgins’ season‑ending injury. Yet Collins has never completed a full campaign, and the Texans have responded by adding multiple pass‑catchers — Kayshon Boutte, Zay Flowers and Sterling Shepard — to the roster. The increased competition, paired with lingering health questions, pushes his value into a risky zone for owners seeking stability.
Beyond these three, the broader landscape adds layers of complexity. Tua Tagovailoa’s own injury history casts a shadow over any quarterback‑centric strategy, while emerging talents like CJ Stroud may siphon attention away from Collins. For fantasy managers, the lesson is clear: prioritize players whose roles are less dependent on volatile factors such as injury, legal trouble or shifting team strategies.