ESPN analyst Bill Connelly has placed Florida State among a handful of 14 programs he believes could undergo a dramatic turnaround in the 2026 college football season.
The Seminoles finished the 2025 campaign with a 5‑7 record, a stark contrast to the 2‑10 mark they posted in 2024 under head coach Mike Norvell.
Connelly points to a rise in the SP+ metric from No. 83 in 2024 to No. 41 in 2025 as a concrete sign of progress, even though the team missed a bowl game for the second straight year.
That blend of improvement and inconsistency makes Florida State one of the most intriguing — and difficult to predict — squads heading into next fall.
A season of possibility
At the center of the offense is quarterback Ashton Daniels, who will inherit a revamped attack that also features standout skill players such as Duce Robinson.
The biggest question mark, however, is the loss of the entire starting offensive line, a unit that will need to be rebuilt from the ground up.
The schedule does not ease the uncertainty, with marquee matchups looming against Alabama, Clemson, Miami and a trip to Tuscaloosa to face the Crimson Tide.
Coach Mike Norvell now faces a make-or-break year, his third consecutive season with a losing record, as he looks to translate the upward trajectory into a top‑20 finish.
If the pieces fall into place, the Seminoles could surprise many and vault into the national conversation, but the margin for error remains razor‑thin.