The prediction game
Twenty‑two pundits were asked to rank the twelve groups that will contest the 2026 World Cup, using FIFA’s latest world‑ranking positions as a guide. Their forecasts were then compared against the actual results once the tournament unfolded.
Cape Verde’s run to the knockout stage captured the imagination of many observers. The island nation drew all three of its group matches and still progressed, a feat that few had anticipated. In contrast, Turkey, a team expected to at least scrape through, finished bottom of its group and exited early.
Among the twelve groups, Group C stood out as the most predictable. Fifteen of the twenty‑two experts correctly ordered Brazil, Morocco, Scotland and Haiti, making it the easiest set of teams to forecast. Group D, by contrast, proved a nightmare; not a single analyst managed to get the sequence right.
Only three groups finished exactly as the rankings suggested, underscoring how volatile the draw can be. The remaining nine groups produced at least one surprise, whether through an upset result or an unexpected placement.
John Acres emerged as the clear winner of the competition, amassing 82 points by correctly predicting the order of six groups. His closest rival, Peter Costello, trailed with 78 points, while former Scotland international Pat Nevin secured sixth place with a respectable score.
The data also highlighted a handful of teams that exceeded expectations. South Africa finished second in its group despite being one of the lowest‑ranked qualifiers, and five of the lowest‑ranked sides managed to advance to the knockout rounds. Traditional powerhouses such as Uruguay, Iran, Turkey and South Korea all failed to progress.
These outcomes suggest that while FIFA rankings provide a useful baseline, they are far from deterministic. The tournament’s group stage remains a fertile ground for surprise, a fact that will likely keep analysts busy as the 2026 edition unfolds.