The latest ESPN Football Power Index places the Kansas Jayhawks at No. 13 in the Big 12 and assigns them a modest 2.8 rating for the 2026 season, projecting a three‑win, nine‑loss overall record.
A narrow set of winnable games
The model gives the Jayhawks a near‑certain 99 % chance of beating Long Island University and a 94 % chance against Middle Tennessee State, but it expects a loss against Oklahoma State, a program that has not recorded a conference victory in nearly a thousand days.
Only one of their three home conference contests is forecast to end in a win, with UCF identified as the likely opponent, while the remaining two are expected to slip away.
A historic contrast
Kansas has enjoyed four straight seasons with at least five victories, a streak that makes the 3‑9 projection feel especially stark, especially as the team prepares to replace graduating quarterback Jalon Daniels.
The upcoming quarterback battle between Cole Ballard and Isaiah Marshall will likely determine whether the offense can sustain any of the limited optimism the model hints at.
A neutral‑site showdown against Arizona State in London carries a 47 % win probability for Kansas, offering a modest upside that could influence the final tally.