The Late‑Round QB Gambit
In fantasy football, the conventional wisdom has long been to lock down running backs and wide receivers before even thinking about a quarterback. The logic is simple: a solid RB or WR can be the difference between a playoff berth and a early exit, while a QB can often be replaced more easily on the waiver wire. Yet a growing body of analysts and seasoned managers are challenging that dogma, arguing that the right late‑round signal‑caller can deliver a disproportionate return on investment.
The 2026 draft class illustrates the point vividly. While the early rounds are dominated by elite talents such as Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, the true value often lies beyond the first 100 picks. A noticeable ADP gap precedes the so‑called QB run, creating a window where a handful of overlooked arms can be snatched at a fraction of their projected upside.
Among the most compelling late‑round options is Jaxson Dart, the Giants’ rookie who slipped to ADP 115. His dual‑threat skill set and the tutelage of John Harbaugh make him an intriguing lottery ticket. Equally tantalizing is Patrick Mahomes, still listed at ADP 117 despite a recent ACL repair; the addition of RB Kenneth Walker could open up new passing lanes and restore his elite production.
Bo Nix, drafted as QB16 but currently sitting at ADP 118, has already proven he can outperform his slot, finishing as QB7 in each of the past two seasons. His chemistry with WR Jaylen Waddle, now a Viking, only deepens the upside. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers’ veteran, sits at ADP 129 after posting QB12 numbers last year and QB4 in 2024, though his health and the durability of his receiving corps remain concerns.
Kyler Murray, now with the Vikings at ADP 134, is expected to thrive in an offense that features Justin Jefferson, giving him a potent weapon to exploit his mobility. Daniel Jones, a late‑round lottery ticket at ADP 176, brings a rushing dimension that could offset the risk of a torn Achilles he sustained in 2025.
Why Patience Pays
The strategy of drafting two late‑round quarterbacks allows managers to compare performances in real time, essentially running a mini‑experiment that can pay off handsomely if one of the picks blossoms into a championship‑caliber player. History shows that names like Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford have turned late‑round selections into fantasy gold, reinforcing the notion that patience can be profitable.
What makes this approach especially attractive is the low opportunity cost. By filling the roster with high‑upside skill players early, a manager can afford to stash a couple of quarterbacks who may not see the field until Week 3 or later. When those players finally click, the waiver wire often lacks comparable alternatives, giving the manager a clear edge.
Of course, the approach is not without risk. Injuries, scheme changes, or a sudden surge from a higher‑drafted peer can quickly erase any projected advantage. Yet for those willing to dig deeper into the data and trust the process, the potential reward justifies the gamble.