The conventional wisdom in fantasy football has long warned against spending early picks on quarterbacks in 1QB formats, but the 2025 season turned that advice on its head. A combination of unexpected injuries and a deeper pool of talent meant that many managers who held back until the middle rounds reaped outsized rewards. Even among the usual suspects — Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Justin Fields — the volatility of the position forced a recalibration of draft strategies.
Analysis of weekly snap counts shows that the pool of signal callers reaching at least 100 pass attempts has been gradually shrinking over the past three years, yet the upside of late‑round selections has never been higher. Players such as Drake Maye and Caleb Williams, both drafted outside the top twelve, surged into the upper echelon of fantasy point producers, proving that value can be found far later in the draft. Their breakout campaigns were not isolated incidents; they were part of a broader trend where quarterbacks with dual‑threat skill sets began to dominate the conversation, alongside emerging arms like Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray.
2026 Projections
Looking ahead, the consensus among analysts points to a handful of quarterbacks who are poised to finish inside the top ten despite lingering injury concerns. Patrick Mahomes, even after a knee issue, remains a top‑10 lock, while Brock Purdy’s steady progression makes him one of the safest bets. Meanwhile, Tyler Shough’s late‑season surge and Malik Willis’s rushing upside suggest they could break into the top fifteen, and Geno Smith is expected to thrive with the New York Jets. The depth of the 2026 class also includes names such as Jayden Daniels, Jordan Love, and Bryce Lance, each bringing a distinct skill set that could reshape fantasy rankings.
For managers planning their 2026 drafts, the lesson is clear: waiting on a quarterback can be a winning strategy when the right combination of talent and situation aligns. Keeping an eye on injury reports, offensive line health, and coaching philosophies will be essential to identifying the next wave of late‑round steals. As the data from 2025 shows, the payoff can be substantial, especially when the market still undervalues players like Malik Willis, Geno Smith, and the emerging talents of the upcoming season.