The 2026 NASCAR All‑Star Race is set for Sunday at 1 p.m. ET at Dover Motor Speedway, where defending champion Christopher Bell will attempt to retain his crown amid a star‑studded field of 36 drivers.
Oddsmakers have installed Denny Hamlin as the +380 favorite, with Kyle Larson close behind at +470, while Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney sit at +850 and +900 respectively. Tyler Reddick, the current Cup Series leader, carries a +1000 price despite a puzzling record of zero top‑5 finishes in seven Dover starts.
Betting analyst Mike McClure, who has correctly called 29 winners since 2021 and captured 11 in 2025, runs a proprietary simulation that runs every lap 10,000 times. His latest projection diverges sharply from the public line, fading Hamlin and projecting him to finish outside the top five.
Why the Simulation Favors Logano
McClure’s model instead highlights Joey Logano, a two‑time All‑Star winner and three‑time Cup Series champion, who opens at +4000. Logano, who drives for Team Penske, boasts five top‑10 finishes in his last ten Dover appearances and a recent stage victory, giving him a statistical edge that the model amplifies.
The simulation also flags two additional longshots, each priced at least +4000, that could break into the leaderboard and reshape the final stage dynamics. While the full field will race through the first two stages, the ultimate showdown will hinge on who can translate these simulated laps into real‑world speed.