NASCAR’s 2026 playoff format, branded as the Chase, will bring together the 16 drivers who have accumulated the most points during the regular season. Unlike previous iterations, the Chase now consists of ten races without any elimination mechanism, and each competitor’s tally is wiped clean before the final stretch begins.
Points are reset so that the regular‑season champion starts the Chase with 2,100 points, while the driver who sits 16th on the leaderboard begins at 2,000. This reset is intended to level the playing field and reward consistency heading into the postseason.
Who Is Already Secured?
Nine races remain on the regular‑season schedule — Sonoma, Chicagoland, Atlanta, North Wilkesboro, Indianapolis, Iowa, Richmond, New Hampshire and Daytona — but no driver has officially locked a spot yet. However, nine competitors sit at least 114 points above the projected cutline, putting them in a comfortable position to make the Chase.
Tyler Reddick leads the pack with a 354‑point cushion, followed closely by Denny Hamlin at 346 points. Both are expected to secure their spots in the coming weeks, giving their teams a head start on preparation.
Ryan Blaney, despite having just one victory, boasts the series‑wide record for top‑10 finishes, tying him with a high number of consistent performances. Kyle Larson, the reigning champion, tops the stage‑point chart with 150 points earned this season, even though he has yet to visit Victory Lane.
Ty Gibbs captured his first Cup Series win earlier this year and has added six top‑five finishes, while Chase Elliott enjoys the strongest start of his career with two victories already recorded. Chris Buescher, though winless and without a stage victory, has delivered a string of solid finishes that keep him in contention.
Daniel Suárez has emerged as a pleasant surprise among the drivers who appear likely to make the Chase, and Carson Hocevar, who earned his first win this season, has compiled four top‑fives and seven top‑tens without a single DNF.
Bubbles and Surprises
The bubble currently holds a cluster of drivers separated by just a few points. Chase Briscoe sits 69 points above the cutoff, Bubba Wallace 67 points, Christopher Bell 60 points — though Bell is nursing a broken left wrist — and William Byron 59 points, all of whom are still searching for their first win of the season.
Erik Jones, Austin Cindric, Ryan Preece and Shane van Gisbergen occupy the lower end of the bubble, with Jones barely above the line at 10 points and van Gisbergen sitting at minus five. Further back, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, AJ Allmendinger, Michael McDowell, Ross Chastain, Zane Smith, Riley Herbst, Todd Gilliland, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., John Hunter Nemechek, Austin Dillon and a host of others are fighting to climb out of negative point totals.
Drivers such as Noah Gragson, Josh Berry, Ty Dillon, Alex Bowman, Cole Custer, Connor Zilisch and Cody Ware sit well outside the playoff picture, each carrying significant negative deficits that will require a dramatic turnaround in the final stretch.
Teams, Tracks and What’s at Stake
The upcoming slate of tracks includes a mix of short ovals, superspeedways and road courses, each presenting unique challenges. For instance, Sonoma’s road‑course layout could be a make‑or‑break venue for Michael McDowell, who needs to capitalize on the final road‑course event to improve his standing.
Team dynamics also play a role, with organizations like 23XI Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports fielding multiple contenders. The performance of these teams in the coming weeks will likely shape the final composition of the Chase.