College Sports Wire contributor Patrick Conn has introduced a new statistic called Sustained Win Rate, or SWR, to gauge how college football programs perform over the past decade of the College Football Playoff era. The metric spans the 2014 through 2025 seasons and combines four distinct components into a single score.
How the metric works
SWR begins with a schedule‑adjusted win percentage, which refines raw wins by accounting for the strength of each opponent. Recent seasons receive greater influence through recency weighting, while consistency scoring evaluates both the frequency of winning records and the volatility of a program’s performance year‑to‑year. The final SWR multiplies the weighted win rate by its consistency score, producing a composite figure that reflects both success and stability.
When the data are compiled, the University of Southern California appears at No. 18 in the SWR rankings. The placement aligns with the Trojans’ recent output under head coach Lincoln Riley, but the analysis notes that earlier breakout years by Sam Darnold and Caleb Williams — including a Heisman‑winning 2022 campaign — could have pushed the ranking higher.
The broader picture painted by the metric is clear: despite periodic flashes of brilliance, USC has not consistently ranked among the nation’s elite programs over the past 12 years. The SWR framework thus offers a nuanced view of program health, emphasizing not just occasional triumphs but sustained competitive consistency.