The Pac-12, once known primarily for its West Coast powerhouses, is undergoing a seismic shift as six new football programs have been added ahead of the upcoming season.
A bold new chapter
The expansion is not merely a numbers game; it reshapes the competitive landscape and stakes a claim for an automatic berth in the College Football Playoff's Group of 6 slot.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the revamped conference is projected to be the toughest of its tier, with Boise State emerging as the clear favorite.
Boise State's odds to capture the conference title sit at 36.4%, translating to roughly one in three chances, while its playoff prospects are pegged at 11% — the only Group of 6 team with double‑digit odds to reach the postseason.
San Diego State follows with a 25.1% title chance and a 7.4% playoff probability, and Fresno State adds a 11.4% shot at the crown. Even Tulane, from a different region, holds a 7.5% playoff chance, underscoring the breadth of competition.
The narrative extends beyond raw percentages. Players such as Dalesean Staley, Jake Retzlaff and Tre Shackelford are among the key figures whose performances could tip the balance for their respective programs.
If the projections hold, the Pac-12 will not only vie for a playoff spot but also redefine how Group of 6 conferences are perceived in the national conversation, potentially reshaping recruiting, broadcasting and postseason seeding.