Patriots fall to 14th in ESPN’s 2026 Power Index
The New England Patriots entered the 2025 season as one of the league’s most talked‑about franchises, finishing 14‑3 and capturing the AFC championship. Yet the same success has not translated into a favorable outlook for 2026, as ESPN’s Football Power Index now ranks them 14th among all teams.
Analysts point to the strength of the Patriots’ 2025 schedule and the difficulty of their postseason path as key factors behind the drop. The model also reflects the fact that five teams that missed the playoffs last year — including the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals — are projected ahead of New England.
The index gives the Patriots a 6.7% chance of returning to the Super Bowl and a 2.7% chance of actually winning the Lombardi Trophy. Both figures place them behind the Buffalo Bills, who sit at a 67.6% probability of winning the AFC East, and behind teams such as the Los Angeles Rams, the Seattle Seahawks and the Baltimore Ravens, who all hold better odds than New England.
Even though the Patriots edged out the Los Angeles Chargers and the Houston Texans in the 2025 playoffs, those victories are not enough to lift them above the current projections. The model also shows that the Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars each have better Super Bowl odds than the Patriots.
The upcoming season will be a test of whether the Patriots can buck the statistical pessimism. With a favorable schedule on paper, the team hopes to translate early‑season wins into a deeper playoff run and perhaps a chance at the Super Bowl.
What the numbers mean for New England
While the 14th‑place ranking may seem discouraging, it also underscores the competitive nature of the AFC. The Patriots’ front office and coaching staff will need to leverage their proven ability to win close games and to adapt to the evolving dynamics of the league.
Fans can follow the latest analysis on ESPN and stay updated through NESN, which provides in‑depth coverage of the team’s progress throughout the season.