Baseball

Paul Skenes’ Early Dominance Gives Way to Decline Amid Velocity Drop

A look at the pitcher's slipping ERA, dwindling fastball speed, and what it means for the Pirates' future.

When Paul Skenes first stepped onto the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates, his arrival was met with fireworks. In his rookie debut he fanned Shohei Ohtani, and over the next few months he posted a sub‑2.00 ERA that turned heads across the league.

Yet the shine has faded. In his most recent outings Skenes’ ERA has climbed to 5.14, and his fastball velocity has slipped by more than a mile per hour. The dip has not been a brief blip; the Pirates’ record in his starts has slid from a winning 32‑22 stretch to a losing 17‑15 mark in his Cy Young‑winning season of 2025.

Analysts have pointed to several possible causes. Some suggest lingering health concerns, while others note a subtle mechanical tweak that may have altered his release point. A third theory attributes the downturn to fatigue from a heavy early‑season schedule of high‑leverage innings.

Physical conditioning concerns

Veteran analyst Dan Zangrilli recently described Skenes as a ‘fat slob not in shape’, a comment that sparked debate about the pitcher’s off‑field preparation and its impact on his on‑field stamina.

The ripple effects extend beyond the box score. Attendance at PNC Park has noticeably dipped during Skenes’ starts, and the buzz that once surrounded each of his appearances has given way to a more muted crowd response.

Looking forward, the Pirates must decide whether to adjust his workload, explore medical interventions, or revisit his mechanics. How the organization responds could determine not only Skenes’ personal trajectory but also the team’s ability to rebuild around a talent that once promised a new era.

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