When Paul Skenes burst onto the majors, his ability to consistently hit the 98‑mile‑per‑hour mark became a hallmark of his repertoire, setting him apart among rookie pitchers.
According to data compiled by Codify Baseball, Skenes logged an average of 26 pitches that exceeded 98 miles per hour in each of his first 55 starts, a rate that placed him among the most dominant young arms in recent memory.
However, the momentum has shifted in the latest stretch of his career. In his past three appearances, the right‑hander has managed only four fastballs that reached the 98‑plus threshold, a sharp contrast to his earlier output.
The dip is not merely a statistical curiosity; it reflects a broader pattern of pitch selection and velocity management that coaches have been monitoring as the season progresses.
What the Numbers Reveal
Codify Baseball’s tracking metrics show that the reduced velocity coincides with a higher proportion of off‑speed offerings, suggesting a strategic shift aimed at preserving stamina while maintaining effectiveness.
For the Pirates, the adjustment could be a calculated move to extend Skenes’ workload deeper into games, but it also raises questions about the sustainability of his elite fastball profile over a full campaign.
The coaching staff has emphasized that while the velocity dip is notable, the pitcher’s command and pitch mix remain strong, factors that could offset the loss in raw speed.
As the team evaluates his long‑term role, the coming weeks will likely determine whether the current trajectory is a temporary plateau or the beginning of a new phase in his development.