The countdown to the 2026 college football season is ticking louder by the day, and for the University of Tennessee the excitement is palpable. With fall practice set to begin in just under three weeks, the Vols are gearing up for a schedule that promises both challenges and opportunities.
Veteran analyst Phil Steele, a fixture in preseason forecasting, has already released his full 12‑game projection for Tennessee. Known for his meticulous breakdowns, Steele leans heavily toward the Vols, penciling them as favorites in eight of those contests and labeling the marquee showdown with Alabama a true pick ‘em.
Steele’s Forecast vs. Market Odds
His outlook diverges sharply from the betting market. While DraftKings and other sportsbooks have listed Texas, Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU as the primary favorites against Tennessee, Steele’s model treats the Alabama clash as an even‑handed contest, reflecting his confidence in the Vols’ depth and scheme.
The contrast underscores a broader narrative: Steele’s projections are more optimistic for Tennessee than the consensus odds, which still view the Vols as underdogs in several key matchups. Notably, no official line has surfaced for the non‑conference game against Georgia Tech, leaving analysts to speculate on how that will factor into win‑total over/under discussions.
Even within Steele’s favorable view, he tempers expectations against Vanderbilt, listing the Commodores as a modest 3.5‑point underdog. That nuance suggests a balanced approach — aggressive where the data supports it, cautious where tradition and competition dictate.
As the SEC Media Days approach, the conversation around Tennessee’s prospects will only intensify. Fans and pundits alike will be watching closely to see whether Steele’s forecasts hold up once the first whistle blows, and whether the Vols can translate preseason optimism into a winning record.