When the Associated Press released its preseason Top 25, the author decided to put the predictions to the test, assigning each program a single‑letter grade that reflected how closely its final ranking would align with the initial placement.
The Grading Lens
The grading scheme was deliberately simple: an A meant the team landed in the top five, a B signaled a modest deviation, a C indicated a mid‑range shift, a D pointed to a significant shortfall, and an F marked a failure to appear at all.
Several programs proved the system’s precision. Ohio State, correctly slotted at No. 4, finished at No. 5 and earned an A, while Georgia’s move from No. 5 to No. 6 also merited an A. Oklahoma, predicted at No. 12, ended at No. 13, again an A, and Texas A&M’s jump from No. 10 to No. 8 likewise received an A.
Other forecasts were less forgiving. Penn State, projected at No. 2, fell out of the final Top 25 entirely and was given a D, while Clemson, expected somewhere between No. 10 and No. 12, finished unranked and earned an F. Florida, despite a No. 14 preseason spot, never materialized in the final list and also received an F, a verdict the author linked to formulaic thinking.
The author also noted teams that were absent from the preseason list but later broke through. BYU, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Iowa, Tulane, James Madison, USC, Houston, Navy, North Texas and TCU all resurfaced in the final rankings, underscoring the volatility of the early season landscape.
Reflecting on the exercise, the author acknowledges moments of overconfidence — such as the optimism surrounding Brian Kelly’s transition at LSU — and the limits of relying on preseason buzz. The letter grades, while blunt, served as a useful mirror, revealing where intuition aligned with outcome and where it diverged.