When the AP preseason poll releases its top five, it often serves as a reliable harbinger of who will contend for the College Football Playoff national championship. Since the Playoff era began, ten of the twelve champions have entered the season among the top five, and the overwhelming majority of those teams have finished the year in the same elite tier.
Historical Patterns
Statistical analysis reveals that 55 percent of preseason top‑five teams also finish the final poll in the top five, and in nine of the twelve seasons at least three of the original five remain in the rankings, illustrating how rarely the elite cohort is completely dismantled.
The pattern holds across grades from Pro Football Focus, where the nation’s top squads have consistently posted the highest cumulative scores, though there are notable outliers.
The 2025 season offered a reminder that the model is not infallible; Clemson and Penn State began the year ranked inside the top five yet never threatened for the title, while Indiana’s unexpected rise from No.20 to champions underscores the volatility.
Looking ahead, the 2026 campaign will open with a global showcase in Ireland, where North Carolina and TCU will kick off the schedule, and traditional powerhouses such as Texas, Oregon, Ohio State and Notre Dame are projected to dominate the early AP Top 25.
Only five programs have slipped out of the poll entirely after a top‑five start, and the lone instance of the preseason No.1 failing to crack the final top twelve came in a season where the leader finished twelfth, a reminder that even the most favored squad can be upended.
Overall, the data suggest that while preseason rankings are a strong predictive tool, the sport’s inherent unpredictability ensures that every new year brings fresh possibilities and that the chase for the championship remains as compelling as ever.