Projections vs. ADP: What the Data Shows
A recent deep‑dive into fantasy baseball draft strategy reveals that projection‑based rankings hold a clear edge over Average Draft Position when it comes to forecasting a player’s year‑end value.
The investigation, which stretches from the 2021 through 2025 seasons, examined more than a half‑decade of data to test whether the pattern persisted across multiple cycles. By reconstructing dollar values from raw forecast outputs — since historic Steamer and ZiPS sheets do not include monetary estimates — the author was able to compare the two ranking systems on an apples‑to‑apples basis.
Statistical correlation coefficients between the author’s custom dollar valuations and those generated by the Auction Calculator all exceeded 0.9, underscoring a strong alignment between the two measures. A Steiger‑Z test confirmed that the modest but consistent advantage of projection‑based ranks is statistically significant.
When the rankings are broken down by position, the divergence becomes especially pronounced at the back end of drafts. Projection models tilt toward relief pitchers and a cadre of elite starting pitchers, whereas ADP leans more heavily toward hitters. Within the top‑50 selections, projections uniformly favor pitchers who have demonstrated higher performance metrics, while ADP skews toward position players with strong batting averages.
The analysis also explored how each method handles young, high‑ceiling talent. By isolating 50‑pick buckets and expanding the sample to the top 150 picks, the author found that ADP outperforms projections at identifying impact players who ultimately deliver outsized returns. Nevertheless, the market as a whole remains adept at spotting the next generation of breakout stars, a trend that aligns with the broader observation that high‑upside prospects often become fantasy impact performers.
In sum, while ADP retains a niche strength in pinpointing emerging talent, the data overwhelmingly support the notion that projection‑based rankings are superior for constructing draft orders that predict year‑end player value. The findings reinforce the value of leveraging forward‑looking forecasts — such as FanGraphs’ Steamer models — when building competitive fantasy lineups.