The 2026 Toyota/Save Mart 350 is set to unfold at Sonoma Raceway on Sunday, June 28, 2026, bringing the NASCAR Cup Series back to Northern California for a pivotal early‑season showdown.
Shane van Gisbergen enters as the odds‑on favorite at -150, a reflection of his recent dominance and the track’s history of rewarding road‑course specialists.
The Simulation Behind the Picks
Mike McClure, the analyst behind the SportsLine model that has correctly called 30 race winners since 2021, runs each event through 10,000 simulated laps to surface hidden patterns.
The latest simulation elevates AJ Allmendinger to a +3300 longshot, while also highlighting Tyler Reddick and Connor Zilisch at +750 as strong contenders.
Ryan Blaney, despite a +1200 price tag, is being faded by the model due to a historically weak record at Sonoma, and Daniel Suarez, a +6000 underdog, is identified as a potential surprise.
Ty Gibbs will start from pole position for the third time in his Cup career, a spot that historically correlates with higher finish rates, adding another layer of strategy for bettors.
With the model also flagging three additional longshots exceeding +4000, including a +7500 sleeper, the race promises a blend of favorite momentum and unexpected upside.