The 2026 Toyota Save Mart 350 is set to light up Sonoma Raceway on June 28, a date that has become synonymous with road‑course intrigue in the NASCAR calendar. Fans and bettors alike are already parsing the odds, looking for any edge that might turn a modest wager into a sizable payday.
Analyst Robert Criscola, a veteran voice in motorsport betting, has turned his focus to a handful of drivers whose recent performances suggest they could outperform expectations.
The Sleeper Landscape
Michael McDowell enters the conversation with DraftKings listing him at +1600. The veteran has a history of strong showings on road and street circuits, including a top‑five finish in three of the last four Cup Series races at Sonoma, making his odds appear unusually generous for a driver of his caliber.
Chase Briscoe’s case rests on a blend of momentum and lap leadership. A second‑place result at the same track last year, coupled with 52 laps led across his past six races, positions him at +2200 on DraftKings. Criscola has gone as far as to label Briscoe a free pick for the upcoming event, emphasizing the statistical edge he believes the driver possesses.
Ross Chastain brings a streak of four top‑tens in his last five Sonoma starts and sits fifth among full‑time drivers in average finishing position at the venue. At +6000, the odds reflect a perceived long shot, yet the analyst admits to adding Chastain to his betting card despite not being a personal fan of the driver.
The author’s betting philosophy hinges on exploiting statistical edges rather than loyalty. He does not let a 17th‑place finish at San Diego color his view of Briscoe, interpreting the result as a product of bad luck rather than a performance indicator.