SportsLine’s proprietary algorithm ran 10,000 simulations of the upcoming NFL season, analyzing roster construction, schedule difficulty and injury trends to produce a data‑driven ranking of fantasy football busts and high‑risk picks for 2026.
Among the players flagged as potential 2025 busts are quarterback Lamar Jackson, running backs Ashton Jeanty and Justin Jefferson, and tight end Mark Andrews, each cited for injury concerns or projected declines in production. Detroit’s workhorse David Montgomery and Buffalo’s James Cook also appear on the risk list, with Montgomery expected to underperform in a new Texans offense and Cook’s value questioned despite his recent strong seasons.
The model’s track record adds confidence to these warnings: it previously identified A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020 and correctly forecast Jonathan Taylor’s breakout in 2021, while Terry McLaurin’s 2025 season was predicted to decline sharply, highlighting the perils of relying solely on past performance.
Draft Guidance
Fantasy managers are therefore advised to steer clear of early‑round receivers flagged as high‑risk, target proven sleepers with consistent production, and consider later‑round selections such as James Cook, whose ADP may not reflect his true upside.