A new statistical tool called Sustained Win Rate, or SWR, is reshaping how analysts think about college football success. The metric was introduced to move beyond simple win‑loss records and to capture the nuanced ways teams perform over time.
Patrick Conn, a sports analyst with a background in data modeling, designed SWR to combine three key components: schedule‑adjusted win percentage, a recency weighting that rewards recent victories, and a consistency score that measures how often a team sustains winning streaks. By integrating these elements, the metric aims to provide a more balanced view of a program’s true strength.
The latest SWR calculations place the University of Southern California at No. 18 nationally, a position achieved under head coach Lincoln Riley. Riley’s tenure has been marked by a rapid infusion of talent and a shift in offensive philosophy, both of which the metric reflects through the performance of his quarterbacks.
Two names stand out in the data: Sam Darnold and Caleb Williams. Darnold’s standout seasons in 2016 and 2017 added a significant boost to USC’s schedule‑adjusted win percentage, while Williams’ Heisman‑caliber year in 2022 contributed heavily to the consistency score, lifting the Trojans’ overall ranking.
Historical Context
The SWR’s data set spans from 2014 through 2025, offering a decade‑plus view of program trajectories. Over that period, USC has oscillated between solid contention and periods of underperformance, a pattern that the metric flags when it notes the Trojans have not been classified as an elite program in the past twelve years. The analysis underscores how isolated peaks, such as the recent rise, coexist with a longer stretch of mediocrity.
College Sports Wire, the outlet that published the SWR findings, emphasizes that while the metric offers a fresh perspective, it is only as robust as the underlying data. As more seasons unfold, the SWR will likely undergo refinements, but its current snapshot already provides a compelling narrative about the Trojans’ place in the modern college football landscape.