When Major League Baseball introduced the shift ban and the pitch clock in 2023, the sport’s traditional rhythms were jolted into a new tempo. The changes, aimed at speeding up play and curbing defensive overspecialization, inadvertently unlocked a wave of baserunning aggression that had been dormant for years.
The 2023 Surge
Steal attempts surged to historic levels, with teams collectively trying more than 2,500 bases in the first half of the season. The success rate climbed above 75 percent, outpacing the pre‑rule era and rekindling excitement among fans who had grown accustomed to static, power‑first lineups.
Among the vanguard of this movement were Ronald Acuña Jr., who posted 37 steals in 2023 and followed it with a 73‑steal campaign in 2024 — the first 70‑steal season since 2009 — and Shohei Ohtani, who added 59 bases in 2024. José Ramírez matched that momentum with back‑to‑back 40‑steal seasons, while Elly De La Cruz topped the majors with 67 steals in 2024. Even players not known for speed, such as Juan Soto and Josh Naylor, contributed 30‑plus attempts in 2025, underscoring the league‑wide shift.
2026: A Different Landscape
By the 2026 season, the rate of high‑volume stealing began to recede. The only player on pace to reach the 50‑steal threshold is Nasim Nuñez, a modest figure compared with the 70‑plus totals of recent years. The decline coincides with a modest dip in overall attempt numbers, though success percentages remain elevated relative to the years before 2023.
The author of the original analysis warns that overcorrecting the rules to preserve stolen bases could strip the game of a distinctive source of drama. While the stolen base remains a catalyst for momentum swings and crowd engagement, the sport must balance its desire for pace with the preservation of this strategic element.
Looking ahead, the league faces a choice: tighten the rules to protect the stolen base’s novelty or allow the game’s natural evolution to determine its place in modern baseball. The answer will shape not only statistics but also the narrative that fans have come to associate with the crack of a runner stealing home.