The Timing of Prospect Breakthroughs
Baseball America began rolling out monthly Top 100 in‑season updates in 2022, giving scouts a moving snapshot of talent that was still on the rise.
An analysis of the May, June, July and August updates from 2022 and 2023 shows a clear pattern: the early‑season windows of May and June not only miss fewer future stars, they also produce the highest proportion of players who eventually contribute at least three WAR.
August updates, by contrast, post the lowest success rate, especially when the cohort excludes draftees who are still in their draft year. The study deliberately left out draft‑year players to focus on prospects who emerge after signing.
July 2023 added two names that illustrate the upside of the mid‑season list. Samuel Basallo, a catcher, is currently credited with 1.2 bWAR, while pitcher Jacob Misiorowski sits at 4.7 bWAR, underscoring the varied impact of different positions.
Overall, 33 of the 78 players examined have already reached the 3‑WAR threshold, and the 2022 cohort averaged 4.5 bWAR per prospect. These figures suggest that the in‑season updates are more than a marketing gimmick — they are a reliable predictor of long‑term value.
The publication plans to keep refining its methodology, using these insights to improve later‑season additions and to help teams and fans spot the next generation of stars before they hit the majors.