Baseball’s next wave of breakout stars isn’t always the one with the flashiest raw power or the biggest contract. Sometimes it’s the player whose recent numbers suggest they’ve been unlucky, and who therefore sits quietly on the radar of most analysts.
Advanced metrics such as BABIP — batting average on balls in play — and xwOBA, expected weighted on‑base average, strip away the noise of sequencing and defense to expose the underlying quality of contact. By focusing on hitters whose BABIP lags behind their expected performance, writers can spot opportunities that traditional stats might miss.
Spotting the Undervalued
The recent article from FanGraphs applied a series of cutoffs to a pool of hitters, layering BABIP, xwOBA, squared‑up contact rate and walk rate to whittle the list down to a handful of candidates. Among them, three names emerged as particularly compelling.
Trent Grisham’s BABIP sits at .250 while his xwOBA is .361, indicating a sizable gap between observed and expected outcomes. Max Muncy shows a .297 BABIP against a .389 xwOBA, and JJ Bleday posts a .263 BABIP with a .390 xwOBA. All three combine low BABIP with high expected metrics, a combination that often precedes a statistical rebound.
What makes these players especially intriguing is the mix of skills that underpin their favorable profiles. Grisham’s disciplined approach at the plate yields a solid walk rate, while Muncy’s power‑to‑contact ratio and Bleday’s emerging launch‑angle adjustments suggest they can translate improved expected outcomes into real‑world production.
The analysis does not stop with these three. The author notes that a broader set of six hitters was evaluated, and promises a full breakdown of each in a forthcoming piece. For now, the data offers a clear signal: watch the players whose luck metrics are out of sync with their underlying skills.